Future Climate Change Scenarios Research Articles

Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus’s Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change

Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like Quercus alnifolia, an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through species distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its distribution under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, and anticipated soil erosion data, offering a comprehensive assessment of environmental suitability. We quantified the species’ sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability to projected changes, conducting a preliminary IUCN extinction risk assessment according to Criteria A and B. Our projections uniformly predict range reductions, with a median decrease of 67.8% by the 2070s under the most extreme scenarios. Additionally, our research indicates Quercus alnifolia’s resilience to diverse erosion conditions and preference for relatively dry climates within a specific annual temperature range. The preliminary IUCN risk assessment designates Quercus alnifolia as Critically Endangered in the future, highlighting the need for focused conservation efforts. Climate and land-use changes are critical threats to the species’ survival, emphasising the importance of comprehensive modelling techniques and the urgent requirement for dedicated conservation measures to safeguard this iconic species.

Modeling the Potential Distribution Patterns of the Invasive Plant Species Phytolacca americana in China in Response to Climate Change

Phytolacca americana, introduced to China in the 20th century for its medicinal properties, has posed a significant ecological and agricultural challenge. Its prolific fruit production, high reproductive coefficient, adaptability, and toxic roots and fruits have led to the formation of monoculture communities, reducing native species diversity and posing threats to agriculture, human and animal health, and local ecosystems. Understanding its potential distribution patterns at a regional scale and its response to climate change is essential for effective monitoring, management, and control. In this study, we utilized the Maxent model to simulate potential habitat areas of P. americana across three timeframes (current, 2050s, and 2070s) under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Leveraging data from 556 P. americana sites across China, we employed ROC curves to assess the prediction accuracy. Our findings highlight key environmental factors influencing P. americana’s geographical distribution, including the driest month’s precipitation, the coldest month’s minimum temperature, the wettest month’s precipitation, isothermality, and temperature annual range. Under current climate conditions, P. americana potentially inhabits 280.26 × 104 km2 in China, with a concentration in 27 provinces and cities within the Yangtze River basin and its southern regions. While future climate change scenarios do not drastically alter the total suitable area, the proportions of high and low-suitability areas decrease over time, shifting towards moderate suitability. Specifically, in the SSP126 scenario, the centroid of the predicted suitable area shifts northeastward and then southwestward. In contrast, in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the centroid shifts northward.

Hygrothermal response of a wood-frame thick-wall assembly to rainwater wetting under future climate scenarios in Canada

Current exterior wall assembly designs for new low-rise residential buildings targeting low-energy demand in heating dominated countries include split-insulation wall and thick-wall assembly designs. Both have been shown to result in thermal efficiency gains compared to building-code minimum assemblies, however long-term hygrothermal performance can vary depending on boundary conditions and the presence of construction deficiencies. Future climate scenarios estimate many heating-dominated climates will experience a reduction in heating-degree day hours and an increase in annual rainfall. Using validated assembly performance data from a Passive House certified facility, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of rainwater wetting, air exfiltration and insulation material properties on the hygrothermal response of a thick-wall assembly. Results show that rainwater leakage values of 0.50% and greater of the adhering rainfall on the exterior surface of the assembly results in the greatest risk for failure. The hygrothermal response of the assembly is then examined under a global temperature rise scenario of 3.5°C for five geographic locations across Canada. Results show that an increase in average annual total rainfall does not directly result in an increase in the failure rate of the assembly when a rainwater leak is present. Additional climatic factors, including outdoor air temperature, driving rain and solar radiation received will influence the hygrothermal response of the assembly and need to be considered when modelling the performance under future climate change scenarios.

Optimal Rotation Age in Fast Growing Plantations: A Dynamical Optimization Problem.

Forest plantations are economically and environmentally relevant, as they play a key role in timber production and carbon capture. It is expected that the future climate change scenario affects forest growth and modify the rotation age for timber production. However, mathematical models on the effect of climate change on the rotation age for timber production remain still limited. We aim to determine the optimal rotation age that maximizes the net economic benefit of timber volume in a negative scenario from the climatic point of view. For this purpose, a bioeconomic optimal control problem was formulated from a system of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) governed by the state variables live biomass volume, intrinsic growth rate, and area affected by fire. Then, four control variables were associated to the system, representing forest management activities, which are felling, thinning, reforestation, and fire prevention. The existence of optimal control solutions was demonstrated, and the solutions of the optimal control problem were also characterized using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. The solutions of the model were approximated numerically by the Forward-Backward Sweep method. To validate the model, two scenarios were considered: a realistic scenario that represents current forestry activities for the exotic species Pinus radiata D. Don, and a pessimistic scenario, which considers environmental conditions conducive to a higher occurrence of forest fires. The optimal solution that maximizes the net benefit of timber volume consists of a strategy that considers all four control variables simultaneously. For felling and thinning, regardless of the scenario considered, the optimal strategy is to spend on both activities depending on the amount of biomass in the field. Similarly, for reforestation, the optimal strategy is to spend as the forest is harvested. In the case of fire prevention, in the realistic scenario, the optimal strategy consists of reducing the expenses in fire prevention because the incidence of fires is lower, whereas in the pessimistic scenario, the opposite is true. It is concluded that the optimal rotation age that maximizes the net economic benefit of timber volume in P. radiata plantations is 24 and 19 years for the realistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. This corroborates that the presence of fires influences the determination of the optimal rotation age, and as a consequence, the net economic benefit.

Hypervolume Niche Dynamics and Global Invasion Risk of Phenacoccus solenopsis under Climate Change

As a globally invasive quarantine pest, the cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis, is spreading rapidly, posing serious threats against agricultural and forestry production and biosecurity. In recent years, the niche conservatism hypothesis has been widely debated, which is particularly evident in invasive biology research. Identifying the niche dynamics of P. solenopsis, as well as assessing its global invasion risk, is of both theoretical and practical importance. Based on 462 occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables, we used n-dimensional hypervolume analysis to quantify the multidimensional climatic niche of this pest in both its native and invasive ranges. We examined niche conservatism and further optimized the MaxEnt model parameters to predict the global invasion risk of P. solenopsis under both current and future climate conditions. Our findings indicated that the niche hypervolume of this pest in invasive ranges was significantly larger than that in its native ranges, with 99.45% of the niche differentiation contributed by niche expansion, with the remaining less than 1% explained by space replacement. Niche expansion was most evident in Oceania and Eurasia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.83) and true skill statistic (0.62) indicated the model’s robust performance. The areas of suitable habitats for P. solenopsis are increasing significantly and the northward spread is obvious in future climate change scenarios. North Africa, northern China, Mediterranean regions, and northern Europe had an increased invasion risk of P. solenopsis. This study provided scientific support for the early warning and control of P. solenopsis.

Building energy savings by green roofs and cool roofs in current and future climates

The global energy demand has greatly impacted greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Since buildings are responsible for a large portion of global energy consumption, this study investigates the energy-saving potential of green roofs and cool roofs in reducing building energy consumption. Using an integrated approach that combines climate change modeling and building energy simulation, the study evaluates these strategies in six global cities (Cairo, Hong Kong, Seoul, London, Los Angeles, and Sao Paulo) under current and future climate change scenarios. The results show that in future climates, the implementation of green and cool roofs at the city level can lead to substantial annual energy reductions, with up to 65.51% and 71.72% reduction in HVAC consumption, respectively, by 2100. These findings can guide the implementation of these strategies in different climatic zones worldwide, informing the selection and design of suitable roof mitigation strategies for specific urban contexts.

Habitat suitability model of future coral reef region in the Halmahera Waters under the projection of environmental pressures from future climate change and coastal pollution

The coral reef region of the Halmahera waters situated within the tropical area of the coral triangle, covers approximately 193,126 km2, with coral reef habitats occupying roughly 958.47 km2. The coral reefs in Halmahera waters are essential for ecosystem services and local fisheries. However, they are at risk from climate change and coastal pollution. This study aimed to develop habitat suitability models for coral reefs in the Halmahera waters under future climate change scenarios. MaxEnt modeling was employed to project suitability for the coral Acropora spp. using occurrence data. Suitability projections were made for 2050 under IPCC RCP 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios, assuming no measures are taken to mitigate coastal water pollution. Environmental factors considered in the modeling included temperature, salinity, current velocity, pH, sunlight penetration, and chlorophyll levels. Results demonstrated a significant decline in habitat suitability, with an 85% loss of highly suitable areas under RCP 2.6 – 8.5 compared to current conditions (741 km2). Chlorophyll levels, a marker of coastal pollution, were predicted to be the most influential factor, followed by temperature and salinity. The findings highlight the need to reduce global carbon emissions and implement conservation measures to mitigate coastal water pollution in preserving coral reef habitats.

Climate and soil properties regulate the initial concentrations of potassium, calcium and magnesium in plant litter on a global scale

Abstract The initial concentration of litter nutrient not only affects the following decomposition process but also determines the quantities of nutrients returned to the soil. The aim of this study is to assess the global patterns and driving factors of three macronutrients, namely potassium (K), calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg), in freshly fallen litter. By synthesizing 5861 data points extracted from 584 publications, we quantitatively evaluated the concentrations of litter K, Ca and Mg in different litter types, life forms, taxonomic divisions and mycorrhizal associations. Also, using the machine learning method, we predicted their global patterns in forests, grasslands and shrublands. We found that (1) mean K, Ca and Mg concentrations ranged from 2.63 to 6.23, 1.05 to 11.50 and 0.20 to 2.74 g/kg, respectively, across different litter types; (2) the initial nutrients of the litter were significantly affected by plant functional types (e.g. life form, taxonomic division and mycorrhizal association), climate (e.g. isothermality, mean diurnal range, annual evapotranspiration and precipitation seasonality) and soil properties (e.g. pH, exchangeable Ca concentration and water content), with a higher litter K concentration of herbaceous plants, higher K, Ca and Mg concentrations from angiosperms and higher K and Mg concentrations from plants associated with arbuscular mycorrhiza (AM) fungi; and (3) the predicted leaf litter K, Ca and Mg concentrations were lower in high‐latitude regions compared with those in low‐ and/or mid‐latitude regions. Our study provides a globally comprehensive analysis on the patterns and driving factors of three important macronutrients in freshly fallen litter, contributing to a better understanding of their role in the decomposition process of litter, as well as the associated biogeochemical cycles under the future climate change scenario. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Evaluation of surface water supply impacts from permit exemptions: A comparison with climate change and demand growth

AbstractMany states in the Eastern U.S. have limited water withdrawal regulations, posing significant risks to water supply management during periods of low flows. While these states require water withdrawal permits, exemptions for grandfathered withdrawals that allow unregulated access to surface water are common. Such permit exemptions present a challenge to water supply management, as full utilization of allowable withdrawals by permit‐exempt users could pose risks to maintaining adequate water supplies for current and projected demand. This study used reported permit exemption data in Virginia to understand the extent, volume, and potential impact of permit‐exempt withdrawals on 30‐ and 90‐day low flows. The permit‐exempt withdrawal values used in this study were obtained from Virginia Department of Environmental Quality. Maximum permit‐exempt withdrawal volumes were significantly higher than projected future demands in permitted users. The impacts of these withdrawals on drought flows were compared with the impacts presented by climate change and demand growth. Widespread reduction in flows was observed with the “dry” future climate change scenario, while impacts were more localized in the exempt users and the demand growth scenarios. The impacts of exempt users exceeded the impact of climate change and demand growth scenarios in many regions during low‐flow periods. Therefore, more comprehensive water planning, policy and research is needed to address the impact of permit exemptions.

Synergistic response to climate stressors in coral is associated with genotypic variation in baseline expression.

As environments are rapidly reshaped due to climate change, phenotypic plasticity plays an important role in the ability of organisms to persist and is considered an especially important acclimatization mechanism for long-lived sessile organisms such as reef-building corals. Often, this ability of a single genotype to display multiple phenotypes depending on the environment is modulated by changes in gene expression, which can vary in response to environmental changes via two mechanisms: baseline expression and expression plasticity. We used transcriptome-wide expression profiling of eleven genotypes of common-gardened Acropora cervicornis to explore genotypic variation in the expression response to thermal and acidification stress, both individually and in combination. We show that the combination of these two stressors elicits a synergistic gene expression response, and that both baseline expression and expression plasticity in response to stress show genotypic variation. Additionally, we demonstrate that frontloading of a large module of coexpressed genes is associated with greater retention of algal symbionts under combined stress. These results illustrate that variation in the gene expression response of individuals to climate change stressors can persist even when individuals have shared environmental histories, affecting their performance under future climate change scenarios.

Dynamically downscaled coastal flooding in Brazil’s Guanabara Bay under a future climate change scenario

Dynamically downscaled coastal flooding in Brazil’s Guanabara Bay under a future climate change scenario

Alpine Rhododendron population contractions lead to spatial distribution mismatch with their pollinators under climate change

The effect of global climate change on plant–pollinator interaction is not limited to changes in phenology and richness within communities but also includes the spatial mismatch caused by the inconsistency of geographical distribution changes. Subsequently, the pollinator interaction network may be remodeled or even disrupted. In this study, we simulated the suitable habitat niche of 15 Rhododendron species and their eight pollinator species as well as their overlapping versus geographical mismatch under the current and three future climate change scenarios in 2090s, using MaxEnt. Results showed that the suitable habitat of all Rhododendron species would decrease in 2090s. In particular, 10, 8, and 13 Rhododendron–pollinator assemblages would have a reduced spatial match region under the climate change scenarios, mainly due to the contraction of the suitable habitat of Rhododendron species. The results provide novel insights into the response of plant–pollinator interactions to global warming, useful to prioritize conservation actions of alpine plant ecosystems.

The value of marsh restoration for flood risk reduction in an urban estuary

The use of nature-based solutions (NBS) for coastal climate adaptation has broad and growing interest, but NBS are rarely assessed with the same rigor as traditional engineering solutions or with respect to future climate change scenarios. These gaps pose challenges for the use of NBS for climate adaptation. Here, we value the flood protection benefits of stakeholder-identified marsh restoration under current and future climate change within San Francisco Bay, a densely urbanized estuary, and specifically on the shores of San Mateo County, the county most vulnerable to future flooding in California. Marsh restoration provides a present value of $21 million which increases to over $100 million with 0.5 m of sea level rise (SLR), and to about $500 million with 1 m of SLR. There are hotspots within the county where marsh restoration delivers very high benefits for adaptation, which reach $9 million/hectare with likely future sea level and storm conditions. Today’s investments in nature and community resilience can result in increasing payoffs as climate change progresses and risk increases.

Ecological niche modelling to project past, current and future distributional shift of black ebony tree Diospyros melanoxylon Roxb. in India

The present study utilized an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of Diospyros melanoxylon under present, past (last glacial maximum (LGM), ~ 22 000 years BP, middle Holocene (MH) ~ 6000 years BP) and future climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5 for 2050s and 2070s). The annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and annual precipitations were the most critical parameters that chiefly influence the distribution of D. melanoxylon. The ensemble model rendered high accuracy with AUC = 0.93, TSS = 0.74 and Kappa = 0.71. Past projections of D. melanoxylon indicated a widespread distribution during LGM and MH suggesting its adaptability to semi‐dry as well as warm and humid climate, respectively. Presence of fossil pollen evidence of D. melanoxylon in the suitable habitats derived through past projections in this study complements the model results and marks occurrences of the species during LGM and MH. By 2050s and 2070s (RCP 8.5), there would be a decline in the distribution by only 0.4% (13 622 km2) and 0.2% (6842 km2) of the extremely suitable habitats, respectively. The main factor leading to reduced habitat suitability is the anticipated rise in temperature and variations in seasonal precipitation patterns. Our findings, help in identifying the parts of the country which would be severely affected by future climate change scenarios and plan conservation strategies for this commercially important species to facilitate its growth in suitable habitats which are likely to sustain under future climatic conditions.

Hydro-sediment responses to management options under current and future climate change scenarios in Maybar watershed, South Wollo Zone, Ethiopia

Climate change coupled with inappropriate land use management is a serious environmental challenge in the highland part of Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to investigate hydro-sediment responses to management options under current and future climate change scenarios in Maybar watershed, Northern Ethiopia. We employed soil and water assessment tool (ArcSWAT 2012.10_7.24) for hydrologic modeling and CORDEX-climate data under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios for climate projections. Soil map was prepared by digitizing soil characterization map of the watershed generated by Weigel in 1986. DEM data with 2 m spatial resolution was obtained from water and land resource center and land use classification was done through digitization of google earth images. Better agreement between calibrated SWAT simulation and observed variables was achieved. Delta change bias correction method was employed to improve the climate simulation in reproducing the observed climate variables. We found a considerable increase in annual precipitation by 18.71 % and 22.33 % for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively compared with the current climate conditions. Climate change induced hydro-sediment results were observed to be consistent with predicted precipitation. Under the current climatic conditions, average sediment yield at the sub-basin scale varies from negligible (under terrace complementation) to approximately more than 50 t ha−1 yr−1 with a basin average of 32 t ha−1 yr−1 (under no-terrace conditions). The implementation of management alternatives gets the dry season's hydrological behavior of the catchment improved and climate change induced sediment yield reduction. Generally, the information could possibly support decision makers and planners to implement best-fitted management options and thereby reduce current and expected aggressive sediment loss situations.

Evaluating climate change scenarios on global pea aphid habitat suitability using species distribution models

The global threat of invasive alien species (IAS) being introduced into new habitats is concerning, particularly in agricultural crops as invasive insect species are continuing to expand their distribution through anthropogenic activities and climate changes. Pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum Harris) are an economic threat to numerous legume crops as they can reproduce parthenogenetically, damage crops directly, and vector over 30 plant viruses as the insect's distribution continues to spread. There are no existing pea aphid-specific risk maps that identify the habitat suitability of pea aphids at either a regional or global scale. Here, we used Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to evaluate which climatic variables influence pea aphid distribution, identify regions of potential distribution, and analyze the global distribution of pea aphids under current and future climate change scenarios (SSP 126, 245, and 370) by utilizing presence-only SDMs based on Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). The modeling results indicate suitable conditions are relevant for pea aphid establishment in six out of seven continents, with significant range expansion in western Canada, the United States of America, and across Europe. We identified human influence to be the most prominent predictor in determining the distribution of pea aphids, supporting the fact that invasive species distributions are heavily impacted by human activities.

Spatio-temporal variability in evapotranspiration and moisture availability for crops under future climate change scenarios in north-west India

Spatio-temporal variability in evapotranspiration and moisture availability for crops under future climate change scenarios in north-west India

Effects of land use patterns on soil properties and nitrous oxide flux on a semi-arid environmental conditions of Loess Plateau China

Ecosystems and agroecosystems strongly influences the global warming by nitrogen oxide (N2O) emission. In a recent climate change scenario, nitrogen and carbon sequestration is obligatory under different land-use patterns. However, soil nitrogen elements and carbon content in the recover process of degraded environmental conditions on the Dingxi Loess Plateau has not been clearly understood. Thus, in this current study, we selected four representative land use patterns, including picea asperata (PA), which is based on forest land; Medicago sativa (MS), which is based on grassland; abandoned bare land (AL), which is based on abandoned land; and wheat field (WF), which is based on farmland, to study soil quality indicators and N2O greenhouse gas and relationships amongst environmental factors and N2O flux. Our results depicted that PA and MS significantly increased organic carbon (SOC), total phosphorous (TP), gravimetric water content (SWC), soil bulk density (BD), total nitrogen (TN), ammonium nitrogen (NH4+-N), and microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN) whist decreased soil nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N) content and soil pH value over AL land-use pattern. However, WF land-use pattern showed reduced trend of above mention studied parameters than AL. Additionally, compared to AL, PA and MS significantly reduced the total soil N2O emissions, with reductions of 24.91% and 14.77% in 2021 and 29.08% and 17.53% in 2022, respectively. The WF significantly increased the total N2O emissions, increasing by 53.18% and 40.37% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Moreover, environmental variables for instance aerial temperature, precipitation had significant correlation with soil N2O based on linear regression analysis, soil NO3--N and soil temperature had significant positive correlation with soil N2O flux while NH4+-N, BD, and SWC were negatively correlated with N2O flux. The Partial Least Squares Path Model (PLS-PM) indicates that soil temperature and soil moisture was the dominant factor for controlling soil N2O emissions followed by soil nutrients and land use patterns. Accordingly, in the context of vegetation restoration process of the study area, the proportion of forest land and grassland should be increase to cope with future climate change scenario. This research result can provide theoretical basis and technical support for scientific understanding and evaluation of soil N2O emission mechanisms and nitrogen sink functions under different land-use patterns in semi-arid region of China.

Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on the Corn and Soybean Double-Cropping System in Brazil

Brazil is one of the main producing and exporting countries of corn and soybean and a continental country with climatic diversity that allows the cultivation of these crops in various agricultural systems. Double cropping is a widely adopted system throughout the national territory, where it is possible to cultivate soybeans at the beginning of the growing season, followed by corn in succession, in the same growing season. The present study aims to systematize the scientific knowledge about the impacts of future climate change scenarios on yield and on the double-cropping system of soybean + corn in Brazil. Systematic review procedures were adopted. The soybean yield is projected to increase in all regions of Brazil under all climate scenarios. Corn yields under future climate scenarios are projected to decline, with the subtropical climate region being less affected than the northern regions. The double-cropping systems of soybean + corn tend to present increasing climate risks in tropical climate regions. Climate change scenarios point to a delay in the start of the rainy season that will delay the sowing of soybeans, consequently delaying the sowing of corn in succession, resulting in fewer rainy days to complete its cycle.

Influence of incubation temperature, maternal effects, and paternity on quality of olive ridley hatchlings (Lepidochelys olivacea) from a mass-nesting beach in the Mexican Pacific.

Future climate change scenarios project that the increase in surface temperatures will affect ocean temperatures, inducing shifts in marine biodiversity. Sea turtles are species that are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change because temperature is a factor that influences embryonic development. We collected clutches of olive ridley turtles from a mass-nesting beach in the Mexican Pacific, which were incubated in ex situ conditions. When the hatchlings emerged, we measured the body condition index-which evaluates the weight-length relationship-and swim thrust, both were considered traits associated with fitness, termed "fitness proxies," and evaluated the effects of incubation temperature, maternal effects, and paternity on these fitness proxies. The body condition index was correlated positively and significantly with the arribada month and temperature during the last third of the incubation period but showed an inverse relationship with the maternal effect. While swim thrust was positively correlated with the maternal effect and the arribada month, there was an inverse relationship with incubation temperature during the first third of the period. Paternity, whether single or multiple, did not have a significant effect on either fitness proxies; however, it may have effects on the average fitness of a population of hatchlings. These results underscore the need to expand research on the sublethal effects of high incubation temperatures on the adaptation and survival of sea turtles, particularly in scenarios of rapid climate change.